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Experts interpret stock index futures are coming: the risk is more controllable concerns


Guotai Junan market share it Institute of financial securitiesWorks Jiang Ying-kun pointed out that at a different time of the launch stock index futures ( Forum on the topic) may be short-term impact will be different, if the bottom position in the market launch stock index futures, you can make policy expected to cause fluctuations in smaller

After the end of the Olympic Games Weiwen, stock index futures pace of the advance is still silent. Too much stock index futures introduced this impeding factor no longer exists, then why stock index futures dystocia »

Some media reported that the regulatory departments have been brewing in the substantial increase in stock index futures threshold,conside launch two new accreditation - the regulation of stock index futures and futures investors accreditation of IT qualification. This calculation, stock index futures may be even later than the market expected launch.

Short-term impact of the stock market trend

Central University of Finance and the Securities and Futures HE Qiang, director of the Institute, said: "Unlike commodity futures index futures, stock market because of itbig impact, must choose the right timing of the launch. From experience , The introduction of stock index futures in the near future will also help Zhuzhang down. Generally speaking, before launching stock index futures in the stock market rose, after the stock market or the introduction, but the long term, stock index futures for the stock market is neutral, not Would reverse the trend of the stock market. Well, now if the launch stock index futures, Zhuzhang the possibility of larger, more market blue chips to sing and when in 2007 Shangzhengzongzhi high of more than 6,000 points, stock index futures is certainly help or The probability of major. "

Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute Financial Engineering Jiang Ying-kun said:" While other countries introduced the experience shows that stock index futures, stock index futures is basically neutral, but if the Chinese launch stock index futures, the domestic stock market over the impact of the news to other countries, Because the domestic stock market tends to enlarge it good or bad news. "

She pointed out that at a different time of the launch stock index futures may be short-term impact will be different, if the bottom position in the market launch stock index futures, you can make policy expected to cause fluctuations smaller.

Jiang Ying-kun said:" Now, the global index of A-share index although the impact of the initial close and alienation, there is no doubt that the impact is growing. "

A few days ago, the global provider of data Thomson Reuters, China A-share market to 54.29 percent of the board of the global decline in stock prices decline, "the top" and the Nasdaq composite index decline of 8.96 percent, the Dow Jones The industrial index market share it) and the Standard & Poor's 500 index falls in about 12 percent. Global stock markets and the basic domestic stock market into the same trough.

The risk is controllable

Industry, with stock index futures instead of hair, Jian Guanceng because of their controllable risk if there are concerns. In the second half of the national work conference on securities and futures regulation, the China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Shang Fulin said that stock index futures and other financial innovations to learn from the lessons of China Southern Airlines warrants. China Southern Airlines makes Jian Guanceng incident warrants the introduction of financial derivatives such asNe more cautious.

E is also a risk o effective management tool, but due to lack of awareness of its investors, excessive speculation, repeatedly making it a "crazy end of the round," China Southern Airlines received from the C of E is the most obvious case.

However, Jiang Ying-kun said:" The stock index futures and stock options different from the expiration of futures will return to the spot price convergence, the final settlement is to spot price settlement, in accordance with the characteristics of stock index futures lower risk of spread. "But she At the same time pointed out that futures markets are still mainly to speculative funds, funds to promote the power of larger, there may be excessive speculation. She said: "However, even if the existence of excessive speculative stock index futures, stock index futures plate, however, individual funds to the speculation about market prices, than the small plate options, the more volatile better."

HE Qiang said:" securities warrants and stock index futures have one thing in common, it is very likely to excessive speculation. "

He pointed out that the whole, China's capital market is still speculative market, not a investment market. "We want to understand launch stock index futures What is the purpose is to avoid risks, then hedging is the most important, but I worry that a launch stock index futures, speculators flocked, to all gambling and not investment Hedge against inflation. "


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