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Asian daily foreign exchange forward: fluctuations in scope and trend forecast


Following is the nine major exchange rate movements and is expected to range forecast:


narrow range wide rang

dollar / yua
6.8300-6.8476 6.8100-6.8808 dollar / Hong Kong dollar 7.8035-7.8100 7.8000-7.8173
dollar / Korean won 1082-1134 1050-1150
dollar / U.S. dollar 31.452-31.826 31.200-31.90
/
Xinyuan 1.4178-1.4354 1.3896-1.4400 dollar / ringgit 3.3752-3.4500 3.3500-3.479
U.S. dollar / Thai baht 33.980-34.400 33.910 - 34.520
dollar / Philippine Peso 46.00-46.60 45.62-46.8
dollar / rupiah 9164-9214 9037-9250


( range is based on the recent high and low, the implementation of price options, the level of Feibonaqi , And the trend line moving average, and other technical indicators identified.)

Hong Kong time 0815 is expected dollar / Malaysian ringgit a higher trend, the reasons for the Malaysian opposition leader Anwar. Ibrahim claimed to be taking office on September 16, prior to the hedge market mentality warming, the Council's worries intensified. Dealers said the exchange rate following the U.S. dollar / Thai baht's movements, Thailand is also being in a political turmoil. Expect the dollar / ringgit to see short-term resistance at 3.4500 ringgit, the first support at 3.4300 ringgit, if above the resistance level, the Malaysian central bank may intervene. OCBC Bank said last Friday after Malaysia announced the budget of the exchange rate substantially higher that the central bank of Malaysia this year will not be raising interest rates. The Dow Jones technical analysis revealed that the exchange rate of the first resistance at 3.4500 ringgit (psychological resistance), followed by 3.4790 ringgit (October 2006 to April 2008 fall of 61.8 per cent retracement). Support at 3.3752 ringgit (10-day moving average), followed by 3.3500 ringgit (psychological support level).

0,815 U.S. dollars / won expected to be range-bound, and a higher risk. Exchange rate weakness in early trading from yesterday's surge in momentum, due to foreign exchange control authorities of verbal intervention failed to have much impact on the market. But traders said dollar / Korean won now may have been overbought, up limited space. DBS Bank said the dollar / yen may be won on the future performance is crucial. South Korea's foreign exchange reserves to further erosion of the substantial depreciation of the won faces the risk, especially this year, there will be a regular item since the Asian financial crisis of the first full year deficit. So as one of its financing currency appreciation of the yen, Korean won will become vulnerable to shocks. Dollar / won resistance at 1,134 won (2001-2007 prices fell by 50 per cent retracement), followed by 1,150 won (mental-bit). Support at 1082 won (10-day moving average), followed by 1,050 won (mental-bit).

0815 U.S. dollars against the yuan is expected to slightly rise in crude oil prices overnight to promote the sharp decline in the dollar. As Hurricane Gustav obviously will not be like three years ago as Hurricane Katrina caused enormous damage, the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil prices closed below 110 U.S. dollars per barrel. Even those skeptics also believe that the dollar since the middle of July that the sharp upward trend over the years down the real momentum has been reversed. As the Chinese central bank set the yuan RMB exchange rate against the dollar higher, U.S. dollar against RMB yuan yesterday's close at 6.8397 U.S. dollars, higher than Monday's 6.8256 yuan, the exchange rate reform again from a low of 6.8100 yuan after. The exchange rate seems to have no more than a month to break past the trading range, traders believe that this trend is likely to continue for weeks. Netherlands International Group, said that oil prices and falling commodity prices eased inflationary pressures, to the Chinese government has the option to relax monetary policy to provide more space. The bank believes that the appreciation of the renminbi rate is one of the slowdown in performance. The 1-year U.S. dollar against the renminbi non-deliverable forwards principal was unchanged at 6.6747 yuan. The Dow Jones technical analysis shows that the U.S. dollar against the RMB cash to see resistance at 6.8476 yuan (55-day moving average), followed by 6.8808 yuan (August 18 hit a two-month intraday high). See support at 6.8300 yuan (mental), followed by 6.8100 yuan (July 17 to reach the lowest since).

0,815 U.S. dollars / NT have slightly higher tendency of growth of exports in view of the increasingly warming concerns, Taiwan's central bank on the exchange rate is still holding strong support for the near future. Standard Chartered Bank said the deterioration of Taiwan's trade performance remains weak and the Korean won U.S. mid-term performance may indicate poor. As Taiwan and South Korea in the export market competition, won the NT dollar weakness adversely affected. The Dow Jones technical analysis revealed that the NT dollar exchange rate resistance at 31.826 yuan (August 8 at the upstream channel at the top), then look at NT 31.900 yuan (mental-bit); support at NT 31.452 yuan (on the 14th SMA), and then look at NT 31.200 yuan (January to March fell Quotes of the 50% retracement).

0,815 U.S. dollars / Hong Kong dollar was slightly higher trend, analysts said the Hong Kong stock market may be affected by short-term weakness in the stock market in mainland China and drag again lowered by the end of August low of 20,350 points, which triggered the outflow of funds or the stock market will be Hong Kong dollar Yuan exchange rate pose a boost. However, the exchange rate up space or to be restricted, due to political turmoil in Thailand, Japan and volatile political situation there (the Japanese prime minister to resign, Japan's ruling party will be on September 22 to hold internal elections), which may make investors to buy other Asian countries The Hong Kong dollar hedge. The Dow Jones technical analysis, the U.S. dollar / Hong Kong dollar to see resistance at 7.8100 Hong Kong dollars (psychological resistance), then look at 7.8173 Hong Kong dollar (June hit the 12-year high). See support at 7.8035 Hong Kong dollar (55-day moving average), then look at 7.8000 Hong Kong dollars (psychological barrier, with the linked exchange rate level of coincidence).

0,815 U.S. dollars / Thai baht is up trend, Shama Prime Minister of Thailand yesterday announced a state of emergency order, and to allow the armed forces stationed in Bangkok, Thailand, this is a sign of possible coup. Traders said the baht will be further weakened, the potential violence in Thailand's baht exchange rate to worry about pressure at the same time, with the weakening global oil prices, bullish dollar sentiment. Today, the dollar is expected in the range of 34.40-34.70 baht fluctuations. Bank of Thailand yesterday called on the foreign exchange market intervention has taken measures to be expected again to intervene and slow down the exchange rate gains. The Dow Jones technical analysis shows that the U.S. dollar / Thai baht to see the first resistance at 34.400 baht (mental), then look at 34.520 baht (yesterday's intraday high); see support at 33.980 baht (Since August 19 uplink channel The bottom), then look at 33.910 baht (20-day moving average).

0,815 U.S. dollars / Philippine pesos expected to be range-bound, a higher trend of political instability brought about by Thailand's political risk, the exchange rate trend is still bullish. But traders said the dollar / Philippine peso appears overbought, and in view of weak crude oil prices (the New York Mercantile Exchange as crude oil futures contract price was 109.6 U.S. dollars per barrel), the exchange rate or the near future there will be a certain degree of adjustment trend. The Dow Jones technical analysis, the first to see resistance at 46.60 pesos (yesterday's intraday high), then look at 46.85 pesos (June 2006 to February 2008 decline of 50% retracement); see support at 46.00 pesos ( Psychological), then look at 45.62 pesos (14-day moving average).

0,815 U.S. dollars / Singapore dollar was range-bound material, and uplink risk. Investors concerned about the political situation in Thailand and Malaysia changes, as the Asian currency alternative investment goods in Singapore dollars will face downside risk. In addition, as the HKMA will allow dollar / Singapore dollar to appreciate further boost its exports expected to continue to heat up, so there is no need for some investors looking for any excuse to buy dollars. OCBC economist, said Emmanuel Ng, Thailand Council against the U.S. dollar / Singapore dollars may not affect the long-term sustainability, Singapore and Thailand because of the links is relatively small. The Dow Jones technical analysis, the U.S. dollar / Singapore dollars the first resistance at 1.4354 Singapore dollars (yesterday's intraday high), then look at 1.4400 Singapore dollars (mental-bit). Support at 1.4178 Singapore dollars (14-day moving average), followed by 1.3896 Singapore dollars (August 2007 to July 2008 decline of 23.6 percent Feibonaqi retracement).

0,815 U.S. dollars / slightly inclined to move up the rupiah. Although Bank Indonesia's intervention may be supporting the rupiah, the dollar / rupiah yesterday substantial breakthrough in 9200 after the Indonesian rupiah, the Indonesian rupiah face of strong selling pressure on the accident. As the Thai political turmoil, during Ramadan relatively quiet trading in the exchange rate or may be exaggerated. Traders said Thailand's growing political tension in the region are the majority have an impact on the currency, the rupiah is no exception. Expect the dollar / rupiah today support at 9,200 rupiah, the first resistance at 9,220 rupiah. Dealers said that the exchange rate of the current round of rising prices may be hampered in 9250 rupiah. The Dow Jones technical analysis shows that the dollar / rupiah cash the first resistance at 9,214 rupiah (January to February fall of 38.2 per cent retracement level), followed by 9250 Indonesian rupiah (psychological level). Support at 9,164 rupiah (14-day moving average), followed by 9,037 rupiah (February 27 touched the year's low).

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