The rapid growth of inventories means that the future will not only face greater level of sales pressure, but also face greater pressure on the construction expenses.

Real estate companies are listed last year for a lot tun to the impulse to" pay for. "

Has been published in 2008 Center Daily News of the 94 listed property companies, the backlog of inventory amounted to 390.987 billion yuan over the same period last year 176.029 billion yuan, an increase of 81.9 percent. One Poly Real Estate Enterprise Zone's event( 600048. SH) stock has more than 36.8 billion yuan, representing a 154 percent increase over the same period last year, according to the company's 2007 revenue of about 8.1 billion dollars, to digest these inventories at least four years.

Even the real estate listed companies in the leading enterprises Vanke A (000002.SZ), 2008年Center Daily News data show that its stock has been as high as 81.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year increased by over 87 percent, to Company in 2007 more than 35.5 billion yuan in revenue terms, these stocks also need to digest more than 2 years time.

States Daishin Securities analyst Fang Yan said that the real estate, stocks of the rapid growth rate means that the future will not only face greater pressure sales, but also face greater pressure on the construction expenses.

First half of this year, the real estate listed companies together to achieve revenue 72.13 billion yuan, up 41.3 percent; realized a net profit of 10.93 billion yuan, an increase of 41.9 percent. And in 2007 the industry growth rate of more than 80 percent compared to the performance of real estate companies listed on the growth rate has slowed down significantly.

According to Beta strategy Duli Hong studio partner on the A-share listed property companies to track the results, Vanke had two consecutive years of negative pre-financing cash flow situation, the company over the past five years the average annual cash expenditure of 40 billion yuan," according to This calculation, the company only released in 2008 and to reduce the inventory value 18.6 billion yuan in cash balance can be achieved. "

In fact, Vanke of the many real estate companies is still optimistic. The past two years, the faster the rate of expansionPoly Real Estate, has for five consecutive years of negative cash flow growth," From a purely financial point of view of security, the company needs in the 2008 release of 16 billion yuan of stock So that growth rate of return of safety standards. "

Fang Yan, liabilities, increased inventory,real estate enterprises will face more intense pressure on cash flow. With the deepening of the property market adjustment, the first half of the real estate company's financial situation gradually aggravated tensions. It is understood that the 119 A-shares of listed property companies current liabilities 310.5 billion yuan, long-term liabilities of 116.9 billion yuan, up 59 percent and 61 percent of total liabilities increased 56 percent, year-over-year growth rate rose 9 percentage points.

At the same time, all real estate companies listed on stock turnover rate of decline further, the end of 2007 several major real estate companies listed on stock turnover rate fell to the lowest level ever after the 2008 Interim Report released by the inventory turnover rate of more pessimistic -- Even the previous inventory turnover rate is still in its relative safety on the value of Vanke, the inventory turnover rate also fell to 0.14 inevitably, Poly Real Estate 0.09, the Golden Group Enterprise Zone's Event)and real estate investment Enterprise Zone's event( 000024. SZ) of the inventory turnover rate dropped to 0.06 and 0.04.

It is understood that because of the real estate project construction period is generally two to three years, 2.5 years in accordance with the stock sale and return of funds, the inventory turnover rate should not be less than 0.4. However, the four listed companies in real estate, including real estate Barrie Cook,Golden Group and real estate investment company, inventory turnover rate as early as the end of 2007 it had fallen below 0.4 A safety value, the inventory turnover rate of Vanke the end of last year although still barely above the 0.4, but still the end of June this year, the rapid decline in the situation.

"Trouble from the" large-scale financing

Du Lihong, a listed company last year, large-scale real estate equity financing, promoting the company in a rapid increase in inventory and assets, income and profits have increased at the same time, real estate companies even more radical land reserve so that the thickening of the company's assets exceeds the efficiency upgrade , The resulting decline in the stock资产周转率, resulting in a year of the current liabilities due within one year and operating cash flow to the growing gap between, "Once the policy or other factors impact on short-term bank loans Yu Shoukuan sales and the Renewal, enterprises will face capital strand break the crisis. "

It seems that in Du Lihong, from the capital market of large-scale equity financing to real estate companies and the large number of Tun no financial worries," a high degree of reliance on short-term financing of the Chinese real estate enterprises are dangerous step "to enable enterprises to combat short-term Financial policies and trade policies to reduce the capacity and funds linked become fragile.

Judging from the current situation, although the real estate business Jian Guanceng large-scale equity financing has been basically stagnant, but some good quality companies, corporate bonds can be issued, and other financing instruments" treatment. "

Precipitation in large amounts of funds in the land, the market also sustained downturn, many real estate companies are listed in the search for bank credit from the mode of financing. Recently it seems that the prevalence of corporate bonds of these companies is becoming the next target. According to statistics, currently has nine A-shares and H shares listed real estate company issued 24.1 billion yuan of total size of the bonds, the secondary market for bonds on the first power-industry.

Guangfa Securities real estate analyst Jin spent a long view, the policy to relax the second half of this year, the possibility is very small, the real estate market will continue to adjust, is expected to be adjusted in the current time on the basis of sustained year, the fastest second half of next year Can be warmed up. And at the end of this round of the property market adjustments to the middle of next year will be broadcast in real estate companies on the financial statements reflect.

Letter of the securities analysis report shows that 119 listed companies of comparable real estate in 2008 interim report of Main income rose 41 percent, net profit rose 62 percent; the real estate segment gross interest rates for 41.5 percent, up 4.4 Percentage points.

" Corporate profits are high growth over the past two years the real estate market lags behind the rapid rise in response, sub-quarter, second quarter, the company's revenue, profit margins and the growth momentum will slow down. "Spent long Jin said. But he still believes that the current financial situation of most companies can ensure that they actually spent the plight of the market.