rival real estate network releas

Summary

National residential built in the area and started an area for growth decline in July sales continued to decline year-on-year 1-September, real estate investment in fixed assets for 2,440,930,000,000 yuan, up 29.2 percent; start with an area of 735,000,000 square meters, up 10.2 percent of residential construction in an area of 1.91 billion square meters, up 21.2 percent, the growth rate of decline in seven months in a row all; sales of residential area of 367,000,000 square meters, up 15.3 percent drop in residential sales in the amount of 1,361,700,000,000 yuan, year-on-year decline of 15.5 %;

Relaxation of the central policies promulgated, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shijiazhuang, and so on and join the" rescue "the ranks: central policy introduced to allow local governments to" rescue the market ", the first suite to reduce and improve the general type of housing from the down payment to 20%, and loans A decline in interest rates extended to 0.7 times the benchmark interest rate, a total of two in a row down the housing provident fund lending rate 0.54 percent, lower housing transaction tax; Shanghai, Hangzhou and one after another, and so Shijiazhuang out "policy to rescue the market."

Shenzhen

Di Sanyue volume picked up in a row: the key cities in October and the overall volume was essentially flat in September; Shenzhen volume of which grew 60.2 percent year-on-year, 6.6 percent growth in chain, Di Sanyue for the same period last year and up more than ring; Guangzhou and Tianjin transactions Year-on-year volume growth, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Zhuhai and the decline in volume;

Dynamic company focused on: the first three quarters of operating income Vanke 22,540,000,000 yuan, up 59.0 percent; net profit 2,280,000,000 yuan, up 18.8 percent, earnings per share 0.21 yuan; accounts in advance 31,080,000,000 yuan; Poly Real Estate in the first three quarters Operating income 6,690,000,000 yuan, up 71.2 percent; net profit of 1.27 billion yuan, up 125.4 percent, and earnings per share 0.52 yuan; accounts in advance 13,830,000,000 yuan; real estate investment in the first three quarters operating income 1,910,000,000 yuan, up 13.0 percent drop in ; 390,000,000 yuan net profit, fell 19.1 percent year-on-year, 0.345 yuan per share; 2,340,000,000 yuan accounts in advance; gold in the first three quarters of the Group operating income 4,350,000,000 yuan, up 31.3 percent; net profit 350,000,000 yuan, up 7.0 % To 0.21 yuan per share; 7,270,000,000 yuan accounts in advance;

Downward trend in the housing market does not change, real estate valuation of the stock into the PB valuation of the times: the central and local policy of" rescue "policy needs to be effective in time to 2008 Q2 as the base prices, housing prices will continue to be front-line cities 30% -40%; real estate valuation of the stock has entered the era of valuation of the PB, at the bottom of about 1.3-1.5 times about PB;

Investment advice: the current stock price has been on the whole, reflect the basic price continued to fall 30-40% of the expected policy easing will continue to bring the opportunity of the transaction, investors concerned about the proposal. In addition, we continue to be optimistic about the three types of companies: the future is expected to lead the fast-growing industry, such as Vanke and Poly Real Estate; cash-rich companies, such as the Financial Street (7.15,0.04,0.56%, right) and HUAFA shares; to hold property for which they were originally And other factors lead to more of the book net assets of the company underestimated, such as real estate investment.

A, focusing on trends in the compan

Vanke

Third Quarterly Bulletin: 22,540,000,000 yuan of business revenue, up 59.0 percent; net profit 2,280,000,000 yuan, up 18.8 percent, earnings per share 0.21 yuan; comprehensive 29.5 percent gross margin than the same period in 2007 decreased 5.5 percentage points; during the cost rate 10.7 percent higher than the same period in 2007 decreased 3.2 percentage points; rate of 69.7 percent of assets and liabilities, excluding accounts payable in advance after the balance sheet rate of 44.1 percent, the net debt ratio to 34.8 percent; 19.9 billion dollars of funds, advance accounts 31,080,000,000 yuan , And short-term borrowings due within one year of total non-current liabilities 17,070,000,000 yuan; another will start in 2008 once again lowered area of about 1,100,000 to 5,700,000 square meters or so, and the company expects 2008 net profit growth rate of more than 15.0 difficult%;

September 2008 sales area of 532,000 square meters, the amount of sales 4,300,000,000 yuan, respectively, fell 37.9 percent and 27.6 percent, respectively, than in Central and 12.2 percent growth of 5.7%. 8083 yuan closing price / square meter, up 14.2 percent decline, the chain fell 5.9 percent;

2008 January to September, a total sales area of 4,024,000 square meters, the amount of sales 35,610,000,000 yuan, respectively, fell 8.9 percent and 3.2 percent

September 2008 the company added 5 projects, total construction area of floor area ratio for the rights and interests of 904,000 square meters.

2

Poly Real Estate

Third Quarterly Bulletin: 6,690,000,000 yuan of business revenue, up 71.2 percent; net profit of 1.27 billion yuan, up 125.4 percent, and earnings per share 0.52 yuan; comprehensive 37.9 percent gross margin than the same period in 2007 to increase 9.4 percentage points; during the cost rate 8.2 percent more than in the same period in 2007 increased by 0.4 percentage points; rate of 73.3 percent of assets and liabilities, excluding accounts payable in advance after the balance sheet rate of 47.9 percent, the net debt ratio to 117.3 percent; 4,830,000,000 yuan currency funds, advance accounts 13,830,000,000 yuan , And short-term borrowings due within one year of total non-current liabilities 2,950,000,000 yuan;

September 2008, the sales area of 108,000 ping, the amount of sales was 11.4 billion yuan, respectively, decreased 51.2 percent year-on-year and 29.2 percent, respectively, than the ring fell 42.1% and 5.2%; average price of 10,584 yuan traded / square meter, up 45.0 %, 63.8% growth over Central;

2008 January to September, Poly sales 1,760,000 square meters of area, sales amounted to 14,150,000,000 yuan, respectively, year-on-year growth of 18.0% and 18.0%

September 2008 no new projects.

Real Estate Investment

Third Quarterly Bulletin: 1,910,000,000 yuan of business revenue, fell 13.0 percent year-on-year; a net profit of 390,000,000 yuan, up 19.1 percent decline, earnings per share 0.345 yuan; comprehensive 33.5 percent gross margin than the same period in 2007 to increase by 4.6 percentage points; during the cost rate 14.8 percent higher than the same period in 2007 to increase 8.6 percentage points; rate of 67.3 percent of assets and liabilities, excluding accounts payable in advance after the balance sheet rate of 59.5 percent, the net debt ratio to 85.9 percent; 3,340,000,000 yuan currency funds, advance accounts 2,340,000,000 yuan , And short-term borrowings due within one year of total non-current liabilities 6,500,000,000 yuan.

4, the land of the Grou

Third Quarterly Bulletin: 4,350,000,000 yuan of business revenue, up 31.3 percent; net profit 350,000,000 yuan, up 7.0 percent, and earnings per share 0.21 yuan; comprehensive 33.1 percent gross margin than the same period in 2007 to increase 4.2 percentage points; during the cost rate 16.5 percent higher than the same period in 2007 to increase 6.8 percentage points; rate of 73.3 percent of assets and liabilities, excluding accounts payable in advance after the balance sheet rate of 53.7 percent, the net debt ratio to 77.0 percent; 8,000,000,000 yuan currency funds, advance accounts 7,270,000,000 yuan , And short-term borrowings due within one year of total non-current liabilities 6,250,000,000 yuan.

September 2008, the sales area of 102,000-ping, ring than 30.0 percent growth; the amount of sales of 11.3 billion yuan, 45.6 percent drop in chain; average sales of 11,172, the ring than 12.0 percent growth

2008 January to September, sales area of 731,000 square meters, up 8.6 percent decline, the amount of sales was 78.5 billion yuan, up 11.7 percent.

Second, industry analysis and investment advic

1, the price adjustment would also like to 2-3, first-line urban housing prices will continue to decline 30% -40% in our September 8 and 17 have published two studies" monetary policy, real estate and the stock cycle Price - Contemporary Chinese real estate research on the three topics "and" real estate valuation of the International Comparison - Contemporary Chinese real estate research topics of the four ", combined with international experience and China's actual situation, our basic conclusion

OECD countries shows that the real estate cycle, to relax monetary policy and will not immediately lead to real estate prices; since 2008 Q2, in the name of Chinese housing prices also fell 2-3 years

The world's urban housing prices than the income statistics show that: the family disposable income is 5000 U.S. dollars price earnings ratio of the watershed, family disposable income below 5,000 U.S. dollars, a number of cities housing prices significantly higher than income, more than 5000 U.S. dollars, Prices of basic income in the following 10;

China's urban housing prices first-line revenue in the 10 or so more reasonable to 2-quarter housing prices in 2008 as the base, front-line cities housing prices will continue to decline 30% -40%

For 2008 quarter 4, although the real estate control policy more uncertainty, but the market is expected to decline in housing prices has been formed and is expected to price the country may be relatively large decline.

2," rescue "policy needs to be effective over time, difficult to effectively protect the housing market constraints on our house on October 10 and 17 published studies" to protect the international comparison of housing - real estate Contemporary China Research of the seven thematic " And "China's real estate control policy analysis" and reviewed the international public housing policy and the history of the real estate market, as well as China since 1998, real estate control policy, our basic conclusion:

There is a real estate control policy cycle, the real estate cycle in the second half, put out a policy of the city be divided into two steps: first," relax "(the original policy tightening), and then to" encourage "(house residents)

At present, the central and local governments introduced the" rescue "or" relax "the main house price increases also take a long time

China

policy on the protection of housing prices and long-term impact is limited, but in the short term may exacerbate the current weakness in the market

First, when public housing (referred to as the protection of the domestic housing) ratio of less than 50% of public housing is difficult for housing prices to form a strong bound in the following table

The second ,2008-2012 Focus cities (including Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chongqing, Chengdu and Wuhan) for the protection of 23-29% of the proportion of housing supply is well below the 50%, Enough for the formation of a strong housing market price constraints, housing prices have limited impact on the medium and long term. But in the short term, due to the income screening mechanisms, as well as ordinary commercial housing demand streaming ability of the two limited room to increase the supply might have exacerbated the current market weakness.

Government is bound to intensify efforts to implement the policy of 90/70: 90/70 policy is actually set by reducing the area are to reduce the price of all housing units, from For the past by lowering prices to lower housing prices are set, is a Win-win-win choice.

3, China entered the real estate valuation of the stock valuation of the PB times in the bottom of about 1.3-1.5 time

We have to publish on October 6 report," real estate valuation of the stock of the International Comparison - Contemporary Chinese real estate research topics of the six "focus on an analysis of Japan and the United States leading real estate companies Mitsubishi Estate and Mitsui Fudosan (1972-present Data), Fittipaldi and Horton (1988-present data) of the history of PE, PB and PS changes, combined with Chinese real estate industry and real estate enterprises in history, our basic conclusion:

China's real estate valuation of the stock valuation of the PB has entered the era: the decline in real estate, a listed company EPS and operating income are often very dramatic change, making the valuation of PS and PE are often ineffective, PB valuation is relatively reliable; and Chinese real estate market decline has been well established;

Overall, China's real estate valuation of the stock at about 1.3-1.5 times that of the bottom line about PB

investment advice

On the housing market: the central and local policy of" rescue "policy needs to be effective in time to 2008 Q2 as the base price, front-line cities housing prices will continue to decline 30% -40%; on real estate stocks : The current stock price has been on the whole, reflect the basic price continued to fall 30-40% of the expected valuation of real estate stocks have entered the era of valuation of the PB, at the bottom of about 1.3-1.5 times in the PB about the stock following the company PB valuation of the bottom line should be slightly higher, we are also optimistic about the company:

The future is expected to lead the fast-growing industries, such as Vanke and Poly Real Estate; cash-rich companies, such as the Financial Street and HUAFA shares; as a result of the original property holders and other reasons leading to more of the book net assets of the company underestimated, such as real estate investment .

Concerned about the proposed transaction and investment opportunities: the current stock price has been basically reflects the overall price down to 30-40% of the expected; policy" relax "the trend has been established, although it is difficult to change in the short term downward trend in the industry, but good The policy will be introduced investors and trading opportunities for investors concerned about the proposal. (Vertex Financial)

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